Based on market behavior analysis, delivered units typically follow three distinct paths:
Path 1: Owner-Occupied (~30% of deliveries)
These buyers purchased off-plan for personal use. Once they move in, the unit exits the sales market permanently. It never creates resale competition.
Path 2: Rental Market (~40% of deliveries)
Investors holding properties for long-term yield place their units in the rental market. These don’t compete with sales inventory—they compete for tenants, not buyers.
Path 3: Resale Listings (~30% of deliveries)
This is the speculative buyer category—people who purchased with the intention to flip for profit. THIS is the only supply segment that actually pressures prices.
Here's what this means in practice:
If 34,740 residential units deliver in 2026 (Morgan’s estimate):
~10,422 units become owner-occupied (exit sales market)
~13,896 units enter rental market (no sales pressure)
~10,422 units get listed for resale (actual sales competition)
Even in a “high supply” year, actual sales competition is only 30% of headline delivery numbers.
